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Home›Borrowing›Why is the future of movie theaters not so clear?

Why is the future of movie theaters not so clear?

By Ellen McCoy
March 11, 2021
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Gal Gadot in ‘Wonder Woman 1984’


Warner Bros.

Until the pandemic ends and studios start rolling out theater tents under their new individual structures, we have no idea what Universal is like “from theaters to PVOD” or Warner Bros. The “in theaters and HBO Max” plans will affect theaters.

We don’t know how Warner Bros. ‘The successful announcement of their 2021 film slate will affect the theatrical film industry. We do not know how their choice to go out not only Wonder Woman 1984 but all their theatrical slate 2021 in theaters around the world and (for a month) HBO Max will impact the industry as it tries to recover after nearly a year of Covid-related shutdowns. Dune, The Suicide Squad, Godzilla Vs. Kong and The matrix 4 will open in theaters worldwide as previously scheduled, with the films getting a 30-day window (in participating territories) on HBO Max along with their first 30 days of domestic release. It would be a readjustment or the end of all things.

To be fair, WB claims this change is only for 2021, an admission that even a handful of effective vaccines won’t immediately get the world (and North America in particular) back to business as usual until mid or late 2021. If no one signs up for HBO Max as a result of this release strategy, it likely won’t continue beyond The matrix 4 to Christmas 2021. Conversely, if tons of people sign up for HBO Max and watch the “theatrical” movies while ignoring them in theaters nationwide, there’s a good chance Warner Bros./AT&T

T
will continue the strategy or reduce their investment in theatrical distribution, particularly if HBO Max enters more overseas markets.

It’s Chris Nolan Principle did pretty well overseas ($ 300 million, or about 75% of what one would have expected in better times) but bombed because it made maybe 1/3 ($ 58 million dollars) of what it would have in the domestic market is proof that North America still matters to the global theatrical landscape. If America didn’t matter, poor domestic performance wouldn’t have factored in delays (for No time to die, black widow, Wonder Woman 1984, etc.) next Principle$ 20.2 million Labor Day weekend launch sweeter than expected. The correlation is not a causal link, but many chess moves (including Disney

Dis
shifting Mulan and Soul to Disney +, if applicable) aims to compensate for the loss / endangerment of 25% to 50% of global revenue represented by national theaters.

Is this the end of movie theaters in North America? Is this the statement that HBO Max wants to compete alongside Disney + and Netflix

NFLX
, and if so, will it cause them to sacrifice billions in movie revenue for theoretical (and more shareholder-friendly?) broadcast success? Is it just Warner Bros. wanting to launch its current product to the world and trying to strike a balance in terms of overseas box office and domestic theaters? It is almost cruel to market films in national theaters when many theaters will not be open (or considered safe). Will all of this matter if life returns to normal in 2022? We don’t know because we can’t know.

If this was an otherwise normal theatrical landscape with that singular monkey key thrown in, then, yes, we could make some guesswork and predictions on how this might play out and we would be able to draw some concrete conclusions. from the data. This also applies to Comcast

CMCSA
recent agreement with AMC and Cinemark (so far) to allow their films to go from theaters to PVOD in as little as 17 days (with theaters cutting a portion of PVOD revenue) and yet Disney is responding or not responding, but we don’t. I don’t know because there is no normal current to compare with. The pandemic, and in particular the US federal government’s inability / reluctance to control it, has essentially put the country on hold.

It’s not like a “what if?” Stereotype sci-fi movie where the world is as we know it except one huge difference (“We can erase your bad memories!” or “Humans and fairytale creatures coexist!”). Everything is on hold until we see how vaccines (and / or the new Joe Biden administration) mitigate current medical risks. We don’t know how consumers will react when vaccines hopefully bring a relative end to the coronavirus crisis next year. Will they continue to stay home and broadcast? Will the lack of theatrical experience make the heart more loving? What will Disney, the third of the Big Three in theatrical cast, do in response to these divergent strategies?

One of the main reasons is that we won’t be getting huge movies to test these “new windows” for a while. Wonder Woman 1984 will kick off WB HBO Max’s big theatrical release schedule, but we’re still in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic, with theaters closed across the country, so it’s not like it’s a ‘group of control ”ideal to deduce how this will unfold. Ditto Universal mainly offers smaller studio programmers (the kind of movies everyone mistakenly claims Hollywood doesn’t make anymore) as theatrical fodder over the next few months. Presume Mortal combat doesn’t keep its Jan. 15, 2021 release date, neither Universal nor Warner Bros. will not have “big” theatrical releases to test the waters until mid-May.

Since No time to die is an MGM film (Universal distributes abroad), it may not be part of the “quick to PVOD” plan if / when it opens on April 2, 2021. Same as MGM’s Candyman until August 27, 2021. These are mainly short films by WB (Tom and Jerry, The Many Saints of Newark, Lisa Joy’s Rebecca Ferguson / Hugh Jackman thriller Reminiscence, etc.) up to Godzilla vs. Kong May 21, 2021. Universal’s first tent pole, give or take The Boss Baby: Family business March 26 (and, yes, The boss baby won $ 500 million worldwide in 2017), is F9 Memorial Day weekend. Until then, the films are the kind that would have been a theatrical challenge even in better times.

Tom and Jerry (which sounds funny) and the Sopranos prequel are the types of WB movies that could have followed The witches to HBO Max anyway. We will have nothing more than ideal speculation until the summer, when the country (and / or the world) could return to normal in terms of pre-Covid “security” for activities like theaters. , sports and theme parks. I can’t imagine that WB’s plan will “help” theaters, but we don’t know how much it will hurt. I imagine this will interfere with the rehearsal of theatrical business. I can see the fans see Godzilla vs. Kong the first time in theaters, but not three times when it’s temporarily available on HBO Max.

Will the same people who crave the theatrical experience, or at least make a point of showing up a few times a year for the greatest of great movies, always will? Will the allure of staying home and watching the latest mega-movie with their 4K HDTVs and Dolby Atmos sound bar prove too appealing, especially for families with kids? The home option will be attractive for children’s movies (like Tom and Jerry and Minions 2), where concessions and ticket prices will make a theatrical outing quite expensive (I still think theaters should offer tickets for concession purchases). This can be just as appealing for R-rated movies (like Smart and Candyman) that would otherwise require a babysitter.

With ever-improving home viewing options in terms of availability, quality, and affordability, theaters’ biggest asset was temporary exclusivity. That’s why theater chains have spent the last 20 years fighting the notion of shrinking theatrical storefronts. If you only go to the theater because you want to see Wonder Woman 1984 * now * as opposed to 75-95 days from now, well, are you still going to bother if Wonder Woman 1984 opens in theaters and on HBO Max the same day? In the absence of exclusivity (and assuming increasing availability for HBO Max), theaters will be aimed at people who want to see a specific movie not only right away, but also specifically in a theater.

I don’t blame anyone, especially in the midst of a pandemic, who is thrilled that they don’t have to wait another six months (or more) to see Wonder Woman 1984 and you also won’t have to find an open theater (or risk going to an open theater) to do so. This choice / accessibility is ideal for consumers now, especially now. However, this may be less important if the decline in movie theater revenues means Hollywood cannot justify big budget movies without the huge movie theater revenues. The doomsday scenario is that we sacrifice everything we claim to love about movies (production value, spectacle, star power, etc.) in the name of convenience, because everything just becomes “content.”


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